On the Record | Could Brexit Yet Rise Like a Phoenix?

Please see my latest wire as Brexit diarist for The New York Sun, ‘Could Brexit Yet Rise Like a Phoenix?’:

Is Brexit a phoenix in disguise? Imitating that fabled bird, Brexit went down in flames at Brussels last week. Britain’s true independence from the European Union, however, may yet be resurrected from the ashes. Has Brexit, phoenix-like, acquired new life?

In a desperate bid to save her Withdrawal Agreement, Prime Minister Theresa May met her parliamentary party Wednesday and, in exchange for their support, promised to resign. The idea would be to allow new leadership to take charge of the trade deal portion of Britain’s two-step exit from the EU.

Mrs. May’s sacrifice of power for her preferred deal gathered strength, in a relative way, when, during “indicative votes” in the Commons later that day, none of the alternatives gained a majority.

No. 10 interprets this as a sign that the continuing stalemate may work to the Government’s benefit. Rumors circulate that Mrs. May’s personal agreement with her party has had the contrary effect, souring opposition MPs who had been prepared to vote in favor to get Brexit behind them. (Why discussions among members of the governing party are now deemed “extra-parliamentary” is bewildering.)

Meanwhile, other MPs, are seeing the EU extension as an opportunity to bargain for better terms. They had previously voted for Mrs. May’s deal and are said to be rethinking their voting strategy.

In a developing twist, Mrs. May will bring only part of her Withdrawal Agreement to the Commons for a vote — the “divorce” component, not the political statement of the UK-EU relationship.

As details emerge, the Government must get legislation passed by the “old” Brexit date (today) if Britain is to leave the EU by the new May 22 deadline. Are mandarins devising rules on the fly, to bedevil an amical exit?

If the latest Government bill is defeated, leaving April 12 with no deal — “WTO Brexit” — comes to the fore once more, barring another Article 50 extension. Our Brexit saga whets the appetite again. Nil desperandum.

Read more . . .

Remarks are welcome on DMI’s Facebook page.

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My thanks to editor Seth Lipsky of The New York Sun.

On the Record | Brexit or Bust: Time for Britain to Ask its People

Please see my latest wire as Brexit diarist for The New York Sun, ‘Brexit or Bust: Time for Britain to Ask its People’:

Cancel the celebrations. Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed that Friday, March 29 will not be Brexit day. Come Monday, April 1, the United Kingdom will still be in the European Union. April Fools’ Day, indeed.

These sad tidings were announced as Mrs. May briefed the Commons on Monday about her latest Brussels meetings. The upshot for Brexit is this, she said: “The date for our departure from the EU has now changed in international law.”

If Parliament buckles and accedes to her Withdrawal Agreement, “Brexit” occurs May 22 — just ahead of elections for the European Parliament. If not, then April 12 — permitting further UK-EU consultations.

So contrary was this to Government policy — that Britain would exit the EU as established by a referendum, two Acts of Parliament, and national election — that Sir John Redwood needed confirmation. “What would the Prime Minister say to a leave voter who wants us to leave on 29 March?” he asked.

“We have requested the extension to Article 50, so the 29 March date is no longer there,” replied the Prime Minister.

Crispin Blunt was unsparing in his vitriol. “Does the Prime Minister understand that, by taking no deal off the table at the behest of this Remainer Parliament, she has just put the final torpedo into her own deal and any real prospect of Brexit,” he asked icily, “and that her statement will represent the most shameful surrender by a British leader since Singapore in 1942?”

Is Britain’s independence from the EU super-state — for which the people voted and were promised by their elected representatives — well and truly dead?

Read more . . .

Remarks are welcome on DMI’s Facebook page.

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As an aside, though I continue to have confidence that the 2016 referendum remains valid, as much as I believe that a general election at this time is fraught with danger, my overwhelming feeling is that at this crucial period in determining Britain’s future as a self-governing sovereign nation — on the cusp of self-inflicted humiliation, aided and abetted by European Union mandarins — it is time to cross the Rubicon. Iacta alea est. ‘Brexit or Bust.’

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My thanks to editor Seth Lipsky of The New York Sun.

On the Record | Brexit, Beware Ides of March Portend Trouble

Please see my latest wire as Brexit diarist for The New York Sun, ‘Brexit, Beware Ides of March Portend Trouble’:

“Infamy, infamy, they’ve all got it in for me.” Fans of British comedy will recognize the cry from Kenneth Williams’s portrayal of Julius Caesar. Brexiteers take the sentiment personally, too — especially on this “Ides of March.” Britain’s political class has it in for British independence.

Brexit had a dismal week. First, the Prime Minister’s withdrawal plan endured its second defeat on Tuesday. Efforts were earnestly made to convince MPs that attempts to address the Irish border issue did not trap Britain in the EU customs union, but failed on the merits.

“No deal” Brexit went down the following day. This is particularly galling to purist Brexiteers, who see future trade agreements with Europe based on WTO guidelines as Britain’s only way to achieve true freedom. The Wall Street Journal, initially opposed to Brexit, acknowledged this week that a no-deal exit “may be the best outcome now.”

Brexit’s “unkindest cut of all” came Thursday, when parliamentarians voted to ask the EU for an Article 50 extension. If granted, the March 29 deadline is shattered. Independence may be fatally compromised.

Can Brexit be saved? Caesar’s augurer has as much chance of foreseeing the future of British independence as any political prognosticator. Let’s examine the entrails of this week for clues.

Read more . . .

Remarks are welcome on DMI’s Facebook page.

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My thanks to editor Seth Lipsky of The New York Sun.

On the Record | Marxist Specter May Unnerve Tories on Brexit

Please see my latest wire as Brexit diarist for The New York Sun, ‘Marxist Specter May Unnerve Tories on Brexit ’:

Brexit Triumphant or Brexit Bust? With little more than two weeks before the March 29 deadline, many factors are still in flux. Pending votes in Parliament this week will give direction to the final outcome. Prime Minister May’s “Strasbourg stitch-up” only distracts from a deal that cedes too much to the European Union while continuing to frustrate full British independence.

Mrs. May joined EU officials late Monday for eleventh-hour negotiations to save her withdrawal agreement. She emerged little over an hour later with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, to announce “legally binding” changes that putatively take the sting out of the Irish backstop.

“Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people,” she said.

Succeed or fail, Mrs. May will bring her “improved” exit proposal to Parliament on Tuesday for another vote. Her first attempt in January, it will be remembered, failed by an astonishing 230-vote margin. MPs feared the Irish backstop left the UK under EU customs oversight, minus a legal mechanism to get out.

If history repeats itself and the agreement goes down to defeat again, on Wednesday the House of Commons will test its will on a “no deal” Brexit.

If this too fails, Thursday’s vote will ask Parliament to petition the EU for an extension of Article 50. If successful, and Brussels accedes — under doubtless punishing terms — the dreams of Brexit will be fairly vanquished.

Read more . . .

Remarks are welcome on DMI’s Facebook page.

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My thanks to editor Seth Lipsky of The New York Sun.

On the Record | Brexit Backers Mock New Deal as a ‘Codpiece’

Please see my latest wire as Brexit diarist for The New York Sun, ‘Brexit Backers Mock New Deal as a “Codpiece” ’:

“In like a lamb, out like a lion.” With the Brexit deadline of March 29 in doubt, the political metaphor is obvious. As well the paradox. Theresa May entered No. 10 vowing that “Brexit means Brexit.” With 4 weeks to go, her former aide, Nick Timothy, admits the government’s narrow ambit as merely “a damage limitation exercise.” The month begins with Britain poised to become a lion of independence. Will it end still a subservient lamb?

Beyond dispute, Britons have been ill-served by their political class. With an EU exit the outcome of the 2016 referendum, MPs twice in Parliament ratified this vote to leave. Was this merely a ruse? To buy time to obfuscate Brexit and conduct negotiations so ham-fisted that abandoning the people’s choice becomes the only option?

Mr. Timothy’s perspective from inside the government is suitably pessimistic. “Many ministers, and I would include Theresa in this, struggle to see any economic upside to Brexit,” he said. From this jaundiced view of British independence, “inevitably you’re not going to be prepared to take the steps that would enable you to fully realize the economic opportunities of leaving.”

Read more . . .

Remarks are welcome on DMI’s Facebook page.

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My thanks to editor Seth Lipsky of The New York Sun.